QUANT SYSTEM TRADE UPDATE - 22.10.23
- Capt D. Ganesh Raja
- Oct 22, 2023
- 3 min read
From the desk of Capt.D.Ganesh Raja
DISCLAIMER
Please be informed that the author of this blog by Capt Ganesh Raja Dhanuskodi (Hereinafter called Capt Ganesh) is not a SEBI registered Research Analyst or Financial Advisor. Capt Ganesh writes this blog to express his views based of more than two decades of experience in capital markets and based on the Quant system which he has invented and he does not do this for “consideration” as per SEBI regulations, which means he does not receive economic benefit through it. Readers of this blog must seek advice from registered Investment Advisors / Research Analysts before taking any trading or investment decisions.
Capt Ganesh has been investing and trading actively since 2001, building trading models since 2013 and has invented an AI based intraday trading system, which has a pending patent approval.
Dear Friends,
Let me give a quick update on the happenings. System has given exit in at 19542.65 as of Friday, 20.10.23 closing. This trade generated a meagre profit of 0.55% and questions might arise why system never gave an exit when recently Nifty hit 20192.35, but I wish I knew why. Having designed the system, I bound by it to follow the signals. Protection of capital is a very big factor designed into the system. Few great trades followed by a massive drawdown has wiped out many traders around the world.
The 10 year Government Security index has given a sell signal and this is a leading indicator. I have been closely watching this for past several months, so system gives weightage to this indicator. This index has been forming a broadening top formation , which is unstable in nature and now flirting with the bottom end of the range, in addition to exit given by proprietary indicators.
I do not have access to Brent Crude data, but I have been looking at MCX Crude chart which is indicating bottom consolidation, with listless movement for some time. Israel- Palestine conflict is generally considered to keep oil market on the edge but there is some undercurrent which is difficult to fathom. Probably the systematic weakness in Chinese economy might be having a bearing on the oil market. The production cut by Saudi to keep prices firm might not be working out because, Russia due to domestic economic constraint might have to keep the tap running to keep fiscal deficit in check. Once the consolidation phase in oil is over, we might see it testing higher levels.
USD / INR currency is continuing its upward journey as predicted by system as per signal generated on 11.08.23 and there is good chance of rupee weakening further going forward.
So, putting all these factors together we are not looking at a bull case scenario for the domestic markets. However, a strange phenomenon which I am seeing is that the mid- cap counters might continue to go up even in this scenario. When leading indices represented by large caps fall, mid-caps are expected to would fall hard, but it might not happen. I might be wrong on this but will stick my hand out and propose nevertheless. Being stock and sector specific is a must.
Gold has given a sharp up-move and as I have always said it acts as a portfolio stabiliser. However, system has not given any fresh buy signal in Gold.
I am wrapping up for now, due to paucity of time.
All trade signals valid as of today as per MOCK PORTFOLIO.
THERE ARE NO NEW TRADE RECOMMENDATIONS TO MAKE.
RETURNS TILL DATE SINCE 04.07.20 : 105.80% (AS OF WEDNESDAY 11.10.23
CLOSING)
LEVERAGE FOR EXISTING TRADE RECOMMENDATIONS: 1.35
LEVERAGE FOR NEW TRADE RECOMMENDATIONS: NA
TOTAL LEVERAGE: 1.5
ASSET ALLOCATION PROFIT POTENTIAL FOR NEW TRADE
RECOMMENDATIONS: NA
TIME PERIOD OF TRADES RECOMMENDED : 15 DAYS TO 3
MONTHS.
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