QUANT SYSTEM TRADE UPDATE & MOCK PORTFOLIO
- Capt D. Ganesh Raja
- Sep 25, 2023
- 3 min read
From the desk of Capt.D.Ganesh Raja DATE: 25..09.23
DISCLAIMER
Please be informed that the author of this blog by Capt Ganesh Raja Dhanuskodi (Hereinafter called Capt Ganesh) is not a SEBI registered Research Analyst or Financial Advisor. Capt Ganesh writes this blog to express his views based of more than two decades of experience in capital markets and based on the Quant system which he has invented and he does not do this for “consideration” as per SEBI regulations, which means he does not receive economic benefit through it. Readers of this blog must seek advice from registered Investment Advisors / Research Analysts before taking any trading or investment decisions.
Capt Ganesh has been investing and trading actively since 2001, building trading models since 2013 and has invented an AI based intraday trading system, which has a pending patent approval.
Dear friends,
In the midst of the most challenging and tight marine operations, I devoted time to check markets, Quant system triggers and updates.
Since Indian markets fell by about 2.4% last week, I thought of giving an update. India VIX AT 10.66 fell to record lows before bouncing, but there is no indication in Quant filters yet for a sustained up move in VIX. Bearish engulfing line in weekly charts, as the name suggests generally suggests a downside but any serious market technician would know that relying on a single parameter is perilous. Again, here is the question of discipline and following the system. We are not sacrosanct about predictions, but sticking to system driven signals.
We have already discussed in one of my previous blogs that it is impossible to have long-term and short-term profits at the same time. Quant system has shed 5.41% of its profits during this correction. I have deliberate exposure to Nasdaq Composite, DJIA and DJ World index just to give a demonstration of the performance with respect to international indices and also test the system performance with those indices. There is no way to know this otherwise and also playing it safe would never reveal the possibilities.
People who have entered the rally late, there might be some anxious moments but this seems to be a healthy profit booking phase. There is lot of news highlighting the hawkish stance of Fed but Fed Chief Powell has been categorical in saying that price stability is what they are looking at in view of strong demand scenario. I have covered in great detail in my blog dated 02.09.23 regarding possible direction of markets and there is no need to re-visit that. It is better to fasten seatbelts and ride out this profit booking phase. Some of the stocks in my portfolio which have given 20 fold gain and also coming down, but such long term holdings are best left undisturbed because one does calculation of taxes, brokerages etc. one would know what a futile exercise it would be.
Quant system has still not given exit in any of the triggers till date, however if there is an exit albeit late, I would state it so.
CBOE VIX at 17.20 indicates a pretty stress-free environment, so the recent sell off could be attributed to profit booking, even in US markets. There is talk of “Death cross”in US markets, where 50 DMA has crossed 200 DMA to the downside, which is a bearish sign but Quant system is still indicating to hold positions in DJIA and Nasdaq Composite, for now.
Please refer to MOCK PORTFOLIO sheet, duly updated to check status of existing system triggers.
NEW SYSTEM TRIGGERS FOR MOCK PORTFOLIO
There are no new system triggers for now, except for Nifty above and would be updated if happens during the course of time.
RETURNS TILL DATE SINCE 04.07.20 : 102.25% (AS OF FIDAY 01.09.23
CLOSING)
LEVERAGE FOR EXISTING TRADE RECOMMENDATIONS: 2.95
LEVERAGE FOR NEW TRADE RECOMMENDATIONS: NA
TOTAL LEVERAGE: 2.95
ASSET ALLOCATION PROFIT POTENTIAL FOR NEW TRADE
RECOMMENDATIONS: NA
TIME PERIOD OF TRADES RECOMMENDED : 1 TO 6 MONTHS
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