QUANT SYSTEM TRIGGER & MOCK PORTFOLIO - 19.08.23

From the desk of Capt.D.Ganesh Raja

DISCLAIMER

Please be informed that the author of this blog by Capt Ganesh Raja Dhanuskodi (Hereinafter called Capt Ganesh) is not a SEBI registered Research Analyst or Financial Advisor. Capt Ganesh writes this blog to express his views based of more than two decades of experience in capital markets and based on the Quant system which he has invented and he does not do this for “consideration” as per SEBI regulations, which means he does not receive economic benefit through it. Readers of this blog must seek advice from registered Investment Advisors / Research Analysts before taking any trading or investment decisions.

Capt Ganesh has been investing and trading actively since 2001, building trading models since 2013 and has invented an AI based intraday trading system, which has a pending patent approval.

Dear friends,

There is lot of pressure in the present Marine assignment and I have been checking the system in whatever spare time I have. But a big relief for me because I had been preparing for a tough evaluation for a new project and have cleared it successfully. I remembered my days when I was preparing for Captain’s oral examination.

There has been talks of a big impending US market crash due to rising bond yields. Celebrated market short expert Micahel Burry , who correctly bet on 2008 crash is set have committed 93% of his funds to back his view of US market crash. Mark Chaikin a veteran analyst thinks otherwise and refutes Burry. I keep saying that every individual trades markets based on his perception and state of mind. Few years ago, post Trump election George Soros lost nearly $ 1 billion shorting the US market. People who might have blindly followed him and did not have deep pockets like him for sure would have burned a hole in their pockets. Who is right and who is wrong time will tell but Mr. Market is always right.

US bond yields are sure rallying but it is still way below historic levels. For now both Dow Jones Industrial Average, last close 34500 and Dow Jones Transportation Average are in sync after prolonged consolidation and range breakout by a small margin and again retesting the breakout levels. Classic Dow theorists would argue that calls for bullish bets, not bearish. System is still indicating to hold long positions so we have to wait and see.

Nasdaq Composite, last close 13290.78, has given up part of its gains due to profit booking but there is no system exit yet and system is indicating to hold position. At the moment this index is testing its trendline support and high likelihood of bounce.

Dow Jones World index, last close 506.46, is also testing breakout levels and system is indicating to hold position.

Indian markets also have been in profit booking mode. India VIX at 12.14 has been rising but still it is at the lower band . There is no confirmation from Quant filters as of now , that this could develop into a deep correction. Yes, profit booking is going to reduce the gains for those who are holding positions and investments for a longer timeframe. Mock portfolio also has been giving up part of the gains and at present the returns are now 93.88%.

USD / INR: Last close – 83.16. The long signal triggered is in profit and there is indications of further gains.

GOLD : Last close – 58290.0. Gold is in a profit booking mode in weekly charts and Quant system is indicating to continue holding positions.

Previous Quant system triggers in Karur Vysya (Last close – 116.95), Tata Communications (Last close – 1694.05) , LIC (Last close – 650.55), Lemon Tree Hotels (Last close – 102.40), NMDC (Last close – 115.25), Marico (Last close – 550.75), UPL(Last close 577.40) and Kotak Bank (Last close 1749.40) , continue to remain valid in addition to what has been said about indices, Gold and USD/INR above since system is indicating to hold

position.

Please refer to MOCK PORTFOLIO for details.

QUANT SYSTEM HAS TRIGGERED EXIT SIGNAL IN FOLLOWING:

1. SBI CARD: Last close –842.45. System has triggered an exit at these levels resulting in absolute loss 4.67%.

2. BHEL: Last close – 98.00. System has triggered an exit at these levels resulting in absolute profit 18.33%.

NEW SYSTEM TRIGGERS FOR MOCK PORTFOLIO

There are no new system triggers for now and would be updated if happens during the week.

RETURNS TILL DATE SINCE 04.07.20 : 93.88% (AS OF FIDAY 18.04.23 CLOSING)

LEVERAGE FOR EXISTING TRADE RECOMMENDATIONS: 3.15

LEVERAGE FOR NEW TRADE RECOMMENDATIONS: NA

TOTAL LEVERAGE: 3.15

ASSET ALLOCATION PROFIT POTENTIAL FOR NEW TRADE

RECOMMENDATIONS: NA

TIME PERIOD OF TRADES RECOMMENDED : 15 DAYS TO 3 MONTHS

MOCK PORTFOLIO.pdf

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